Political instability is having huge impact on export fluctuation which can bring its value to Zero anytime. What is happening in Middle East and the conflict between Gulf States is a good proof for that. Companies may spend years to penetrate new market and spend millions to establish distribution network, and at any point of time, they can lose that investment. The recent case of Gulf States is only one of many other cases between countries that cause killing the export activity from one country to another.
Such conflicts are not only affecting the two countries , but also, indirectly affect many trade partners who will be suffering from extra insurance charges, logistics cost increases, and delays in shipping that can cause cancelling many orders. Feasibly of many projects and businesses could be affected and return of investment could be reduced or become not worthy.
In my opinion, the Agile Value Chain thinking is becoming again more and more on the important to give enough flexibility for manufacturers to handle such conflicts within short period of time sustain their business growth.
Companies shall always do what we call: “get ready for the worst” by establishing series of scenarios of bringing their exports to clients in alternative routes and /or shifting to export destination with , may be less profitability, but good market to keep their operations up and running.
Experts and consultants used to reach their maximum risk options to reach 70 % off track, but now game is changing, 100% market loss is always possible within 24 Hours, so get ready.